This site is in free access for a test period. The visitor will not find there advices coming from the technical analysis, the practicians too much know its lack of reliability. Here, the analysis is, as much as possible, conformable to the structural theory developed in " Finance prospective essay " presented on prospectivebourse.free.fr (click on the link). This theory - the most recent in the domain of forecast - is a development of the method of Elliott waves, it uses a very simple terminology which will easily be assimilated through the reading of this book that any stock-holder ought to get.
This site is moreover mainly intending to the readers who still need assistance to make the analysis.

What is the difference between the technical analysis and the theoretical analysis ? The technical analysis consists in making a statistical treatment of data, it can thus only follow a movement and at times a reversal when the statistical evolution indicates a reversal, but it cannot anticipate. Sometimes it detects (or believes to see) some figures which suggest a probability of evolution of a movement. It also locates objectives, but those have not a very precise character and are more direction indicators than real objectives (these indicators maying be called in question at the first direction change). Moreover, the technical analysis is only usable in a short term.

Let us be precise : actually the research in technical analysis tends to apply to the variations of the stock exchange prices some laws coming from Statistics (stochastic processes, Markov's process, cumulative process known as brownian movement). It therefore implicitly postulates (perhaps without knowing) that :
1 - the movements of prices are fortuitous,
2 - the formation of a price is assimilated to a physical phenomenon.
However these two postulates are highly contestable and even fundamentaly erroneous. Assuming that price movements should be fortuitous comes to saying that the investors make their decisions at random, which is obviously incorrect (and all the analysis which you will find in this site shows it). In addition, the formation of a price results from causes whose motivations are various, but always of a psychological nature in the management of the personnal or collective savings. A price can thus neither be studied like a material objet, nor to be subjected to thermodynamic or physical laws (a heads or tails game is a physical phenomenon, the formation of a price is not it). For this reason, until now, the attempts to insert the market in Mechanics, by defining forces - offer, demand - and a power of the movement, did not lead.
It is seen that the technical analysis, whatever the number of its followers, does not rest on any scientific base, or, which is worse, rests on not proved or false bases.

The theoretical analysis proceeds of a completely different step : it identifies each fluctuation and integrates it in the structure of a movement ; this structure being theoretically known (theory resulting from the observation of a total determinism in the succession of the elementary variations), the analysis allows the forecast. In the application of the structural theory, the most difficult is to make an exact analysis ; if the analysis is right, the forecast is obvious. Consequently, by its rationality, its reliability and its broad area of application, the theoretical analysis presents a real superiority on the technical analysis. However this one should not be definitively abandoned, the experiment shows that it preserves a certain utility in the appreciation of the amplitude of the movements, which results from the fact that it is very largely used by the professionals (well-known phenomenon of self-realization : when, in a group, each member knows in advance the attitude which the other members will adopt, if his nonconformity is prejudicial with its interests, he takes obviously the same attitude and, thus, the forecast is carried out).

To summarize, there are two types of analysis, technical and theoretical, and two types of market actors : professionals working in the future market and all the investors, private or professional. The first can use the two methods advantageously : one cannot hold for negligible a technical advice taken by 90 % of the operators, even if this advice comes from the study of their passed behaviour, itself resulting from the preceding advice. For all the investors, the only valid method is the theoretical analysis.

About the future. The future has multiple aspects, which all have a common point, finance : the realization of a project depends on its cost. If one takes only two examples, the arrival of a new man, genetically healthy, resistant to diseases, living longer and keeping an appearance of youth is much more probable than a fixed installation of the men over Mars. The long term analysis indicates that this second project, very expensive, will not be financed any more after the years 2020. This example illustrates the interest of the theory which hasn't only speculative utility in the short term.

N.B. . The reliability of the theory is certain, but the analysis is a pure intellectual exercise that each one is invited to carry out himself and which can sometimes be taken at fault. Any consequence of the application of this exercise, and in particular of the analysis suggested in the following pages, cannot be retained against Ex Futuris.

Actually in these pages, only the French market (CAC 40 index) is treated. As it is shown in the book, several international indices behave like it and can be analysed in the same manner. You may thus trade either in your own index, or, all over the world, directly in the CAC 40 index future.